Wednesday, June 18, 2008

4th Wave of Corrective Wave C Seems to have Ended

Finally, I’m back after a long break but can’t say for how long! I’ve had a pretty bad case of an infection which is just refusing to leave. After 4 days of antibiotics being injected into me, the high fever ranging between 103-104 degrees Fahrenheit seems to have relented. But I’ve also been having this real bad pain in the back (which, according to the doctors is related to the infection) which gives in only to painkillers and that too for only 4-5 hours. The bad part is that I can take the next doze of the painkiller only 8 hours after the previous doze and the last 3 hours are just unbearable. Today, I have taken the painkiller about 3 hours ago and I have about another hour or so to finish before I start getting the pains again. Hope I can finish what I have to say in that much time otherwise I’ll have to just upload it midway. So please excuse an abrupt ending to this edition, if there is any.

Nifty 30 minutes - Fibonacci Retracements

Seen above is the 30 minutes chart of the Nifty. As per the last analysis that I had done I had suggested that if the Nifty were to go above 4560, it could go on to find resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 4675. It just so happened that the Nifty made a high of 4673.10 today before it changed its direction and started its move down.

Nifty Daily Chart - Elliott Wave Counts

Let us take a look at the daily chart of the Nifty and also look at the previous Elliott Wave Count analysis done on 3rd June, 2008. This analysis had talked about the Nifty being in the corrective wave C in which the waves A-B-C are following the 3-3-5 formation which means 3 waves each in waves A and B and 5 waves in wave C. The Nifty seems to be moving as per our analysis and now seems to have completed wave 4 and has probably started the fifth wave down of the corrective wave C today. The end of this wave shall signify the end of the bear trend. Considering this 5th wave to be as long as the first wave of this corrective wave C, we get a minimum target of 4295 and maximum of 3882 for the end of the 5th wave. Anything outside these levels would signify that our wave counting has gone awry. I, personally, am looking at a target in the vicinity of 4100.

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