Wednesday, June 4, 2008

How Low Can the Markets Stoop?

The Nifty opened today with a slight negative bias. It remained like that for the first couple of hours or so and then staged a seemingly smart recovery but again found resistance near the highs of the day and in the afternoon, probably, when the European markets started opening that we started coming down, and pretty heavily too. It was a, virtually, one way slide for the Nifty and finally it found support at 4564.50, again very close to our support which we had been predicting between 4500 and 4550. So, yesterday’s doji could not force a turnaround for the markets. The bears weighed much more than the doji.

Nifty Daily Chart - Support BrokenAttached above is the daily chart of the Nifty. Some interesting things can be seen on this chart. First of all, our first support at 4630, the previous low formed in early April could not hold today and was broken through effortlessly. Secondly, a trendline which has been in place since August 2007 was also broken through today. This could be significant for the market. The only ray of light that we can see in this dark tunnel is the Jan and Mar lows. They could, only could, provide support to the Nifty between 4450 and 4470. Below 4450, we don’t know where the bottom is. It could be 4100 or 4200 or even lower. As of this moment, there is no strength seen in the markets. It is looking all gloomy right now.

Nifty Weekly Chart - 3 year TrendlineI was trying to see if this trendline, which has been marked with the green arrow, was very significant or not. For that I had to see whether it extended back into time or not. And it was then that I came upon a very interesting disheartening chart, the weekly chart of the Nifty. And I was shocked to find that this same trendline had actually started in April 2005 and had provided support to the Nifty 8 times in the last three years. And if this three year long trendline is decisively broken, then it could be very very significant for the market.

This is disheartening in itself that the long term bullish trend could now be broken. But what are the implications? What is the target? Can we ask the market how low it can go? The answer may be visible in this chart itself. Attached below is the same weekly chart of Nifty but zoomed in to show the period from Feb 2007 onwards. Could this be called a bearish head and shoulders pattern? Well, I’m sure it can be. The neckline, of course, is not straight but it doesn’t have to be. There are head and shoulders pattern which work very well with slanting necklines too.

Nifty Weekly Chart - Head and Shoulders?What is disheartening is the fact that the market is virtually shouting from the rooftops to exercise caution. It is telling us that it could stoop down shamelessly to levels which we cannot even think of. But, of course, only after this pattern is decisively broken. The dashed vertical line marked with the arrow shows that the high was close to 6300 when the neckline was near 4300, a difference of 2000 points. And if it is broken and the breakout is considered to be at 4600 then we are looking at a target of …. Hold your breath ….. 2600.

Can this pattern fail? Well, definitely it could. There have been various instances of head and shoulders patterns failing in the past.
Uma could vouch for that. She has experienced three head and shoulders patterns failures in Reliance in a single day. Believe me, this is one occasion where I would really hope for this pattern in Nifty to fail. I have a lot of long term positions which I would have to sell in a loss if the Nifty were to go below the previous low at 4450.

After this chart and analysis, I can’t seem to get any more words out of my mouth fingers. All I can say right now is just the three golden words – EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION.

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