Thursday, September 25, 2008

Nifty Inside Contracting Triangle, Wait for Breakout

The Nifty remained range bound today. After opening with a slight positive gap it went up a little further but shortly before 1pm, it started its downward journey. Around 3pm, after it recorded its low of the day, a little bit of recovery came about, especially in the last 30 minutes, which helped the Nifty close with a gain of about 34 points. International cues too do not suggest anything. Asian markets closed flat with a slight positive bias while European markets had a slight negative bias in them. American markets, at the moment stand completely unchanged and the Dow Jones, till now today, has had a small intraday movement of about 100 points. Crude is flat too and is currently trading near $105.

Nifty 30 Minutes Chart - Contracting Triangle with Straight Bottom, MACD suggests indecision

Seen above is the 30 minutes chart of the Nifty. As can be seen, the Nifty is making a pattern of a right angled triangle with a straight bottom. The prices, for the last four days have been contracting within this triangle. Such straight bottom triangles are essentially bearish patterns but my experience tells me that with them the direction cannot be predicted. The best way would be to wait to let the prices break out of the triangle and we then take a position in the direction of the triangle. For tomorrow, the levels are between 4115 and 4200. Buy above 4200 or sell below 4115. If the pattern is broken on the downside, then we could have a target of 3990 on the charts.

At the moment, the MACD is hovering around zero and the MACD line is moving so close to its signal line that it suggests a lot of confusion and indecision in the markets. And obviously, a contracting triangle and trend channels, in themselves, are signs of confusion.

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