Thursday, May 15, 2008

Back in an Uptrend, Target of 5180

As expected and as seen on this 30 minutes chart, the Nifty moved up today, thus accomplishing two major achievements on the short term charts. First, it signified the end of this fortnight long downtrend and second, it confirmed a double bottom pattern and gives us a target of 5180 on the Nifty. During the day the Nifty did face some selling pressure but then found support at the neckline and immediately changed its direction.

While a target if 5180 is there but in an uptrend the Nifty can go much higher and on the way up may encounter some areas of resistance near 5200, 5230, 5250 and then 5300. A move above 5300 should be relatively smooth till it reaches between 5440 and 5500. Support on the downside is now at the neckline of the double bottom pattern at 5060.
Hindalco Industries has been moving inside a large contracting triangle since the beginning of the year. The price now seems to have broken through the triangle and with huge volumes too, leaving little doubt about the genuineness of the breakout. It is easy to say that it is a good buy with a stop loss of close to 190. What is difficult to say (and to predict) is the target. Seeing it as a traditional triangle pattern, we get a target of about 270. 270 would be a 35% jump for the stock, which seems unlikely, if not impossible in such a rangebound market. Taking a very conservative and cautious view, we get a target of 230 and a more daring view would give us a target inbetween of 245-250. I would probably stick with a target of 245.

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Happy Investing!!!