Sunday, May 4, 2008

Some Resistance Likely for Nifty

The Nifty, as expected, remained above our trendline on the 30 minutes chart. There are no signs of a downtrend coming right now except for a few areas of weakness seen on the charts. Ignoring the big blue bar, which was more because of global reasons than anything fundamental/technical, we can see that all other candles are finding resistance near the 5230 mark. It would, probably, need a very good push now to go past 5230.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), though, still above 60 is also showing some signs of weakness. The Nifty opened in the morning to make a new high and remained above the trendline throughout the day (in spite of the negative news of inflation measuring 7.57%), yet the RSI has not been able to cross its earlier high of 78. This clearly shows that the strength of this upmove is reducing. Looking more closely at the RSI, if it were to go below 50, it would confirm a bearish head and shoulders pattern and the price, sooner or later, would have to follow suit.

If we take a look at the daily chart of the Nifty, here too, we find that there is a lot of resistance near 5300 and there may be some difficulty crossing it. If the price does decide to come down, we have a good support near 5100 too and, personally, I am not looking at the market going below 5100. As far as the RSI on the daily chart is concerned there seems to be no weakness of any sort visible as of now. All trendlines are intact, higher lows and higher highs continuing, no bearish divergence visible and the most definite sign of bullishness is that it is still above 60. Incidentally, the price is managing to trade above its 200 day simple moving average and in the event of the price coming down we have another support at this level of 5165. Keep stop losses below 5100 for long positions.

Financial Technologies has now broken through its downtrending trendline which was providing resistance near 1775. This breakout has been confirmed by the RSI with it crossing the barrier at 60 and signifies that it is now in the bullish territory. The volumes were not convincingly high but were the highest in the last 10 days. I would say it is good buy setup at current levels with a stop loss of 1700 for a target between 2400 and 2450. There might be some resistance near 2000 levels too.

GMR Infrastructure is still below its resistance line near 169. A buy signal has not come as yet but indications are that it may come tomorrow. We shall take the trade only if a buy signal does come about. That will come, if and, when the price is able to sustain above 172 after ignoring the movements of the first 30-45 minutes of the morning. If that happens the RSI would also be able to cross above 60 and the volumes have been remaining high since the last 3 days suggesting that a breakout may happen. Buy above 172 with a stop loss of 150 for a target of near 220.

Mahindra and Mahindra also has an interesting chart. It has not yet given a buy signal but would give if it were to go above 720. The risk to reward ratio for this trade is quite high and the reader should use her own discretion whether to take the trade or not. It was only on the basis of other auto stocks showing strength that I selected Mahindra and Mahindra. Buy above 720 with a stop loss of 640 for a target of 800. This means one would take a risk of Rs.80/- to get Rs.80/-, which is why I say that the risk to reward ratio is quite high.

Maruti Udyog seems to be a good buy above 800 with a stop below 720 for a target of near 1000. If it does cross 800, it would give a buy signal confirming the breakout from the downtrending line, the volumes already high giving an early signal of an impending breakout. The only thing that is not yet suggesting bullishness is the RSI being sub 60 but it is certainly moving in the right direction.

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